Tropical Cyclone “FAVIO” heads towards Mozambique





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  1. #1
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    Default Tropical Cyclone FAVIO heads towards Mozambique

    Tropical Cyclone FAVIO heads towards Mozambique

    20 February 2007

    Currently, tropical cyclone FAVIO lies just off the extreme south-western tip of Madagascar and its latest position (at 08h00 SAST) is estimated to be at 25.4 S 42.8 E , with movement of the system towards the west-north-west at 9 knots (approx 18 km/hr). The Tropical Cyclone Centre at Reunion Island has issued a hurricane warning for the immediate area surrounding this system, with hurricane force (65 to 90 knots; approx 125 to 170 km /hr) winds and phenomenally rough seas within a radius of about 40 km of the core.

    This type of system is by no means rare, unusual or freakish, with a handful of tropical systems affecting the South-west Indian Ocean region regularly during the summer months. These tropical disturbances (also called hurricanes or typhoons in other areas of the world) typically affect the regions east of Madagascar much more frequently and the Mozambique Channel much less frequently or infrequently. Readers will probably recall the Mozambique Flood event of 2000/2001, when tropical cyclone ELINE moved inland from the Mozambique Channel and caused havoc with widespread torrential rain and flooding, also latterly affecting the Kruger National Park, where numerous large bridges were swept away. Rainfall of 200mm to 600mm can easily accumulate within 2 to 3 days and daily rainfall typically exceeds 100mm.


    Tropical Cyclone FAVIO, at 08h00UTC (10h00SAST) 20/02/2007,
    just off the SW tip of Madagascar. Note the clearly defined cloud-free
    eye in the centre of the system. COURTESY EUMETSAT 2007.
    RGB = (3,2,1) false-colour, Day Natural , Meteosat 8 (MSG)
    Reunion Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre expect that FAVIO should continue to move mainly west-north-westwards during the next 48hrs (see graphic of projected / forecast track of movement attached hereto), to possibly make landfall at or near Bazaruto Island and the Vilanculos area in the early part of Thursday 22nd February. It must be emphasized that there will always be an element of uncertainty with such forecasts of (time and place of) landfall and that concerned readers should continue to monitor the S A Weather Service website www.weathersa.co.za for regular updates in this regard.

    Notwithstanding levels of uncertainty as to landfall, it seems highly likely that virtually the entire southern Mozambican coast, between Xai-Xai, northwards, through Inhambane, Bazaruto, Vilanculos and Beira can expect heavy or torrential rain setting in within the next 48hrs, possibly accompanied by gale-force (35-40 knot) or even strong gale-force (41-47 knot) winds at places along the coast. Very rough seas, combined with storm surge along parts of the coast, could also put coastal communities at life-threatening risk.

    Latest projected track for FAVIO (times in UTC + 4 hrs, local Reunion time),
    Courtesy: METEO FRANCE / La Reunion.

    Mozambique has already experienced an episode of widespread flooding over the central provinces within the last 2 weeks, following flooding of the Zambezi river, prompting the evacuation of more than 50 000 people from low-lying, marshy regions adjoining the Zambezi. The high likelihood of yet another bout of heavy rain from Tropical Cyclone FAVIO is expected to exacerbate an already dire situation in the region. Relief aid and evacuation efforts by helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft are likely to be severely curtailed by inclement weather, should FAVIO indeed move into southern and central Mozambique in the coming days.

    The South African Weather Service appeals to the public to forward to us any reports or confirmation of significant weather events such as snowfalls, tornadoes or water spouts, hailstorms, heavy rain, damaging winds etc, when they are observed. Such information can also be used for further research that will contribute to the improvement of weather predictions for that particular area.

    Kevin Rae, Mark Todd and Lee-ann Clark
    Meteorologists: National Forecast Centre (NFC); Pretoria
    Enquiries and editing:
    Mnikeli Ndabambi
    Senior Manager: Forecasting
    for Chief Executive Officer; South African Weather Service.
    Tel. 082 233 9800
    Email: [email protected]

  2. #2
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    hi Guys
    as many others I will be off to Moz at end March for a holiday round about the Inhambane area, or that was the plan at least, i have sent notice that I might cancel pending reports in the next few days, what do you guys think, paranoia or sensable

    Shareef
    I know you were also going, are you still going or reconsidering like me?
    Regards
    Jaco
    You can follow.....but it's gonna hurt, even more!<br>FJ Desert Cruiser<br>Patrol 4.5<br>Stock standard....for now...

  3. #3
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    Here is a sat foto of Favio over Moz.
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  4. #4
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    The cyclone hit from Vilanculos northwards. Nothing Sout of Vilanculos was affected including Maxixe, Inhambane etc. So there is no need to cancel your trip.

    Rgds
    Bruce Turner
    VilanculosResorts.com

  5. #5
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    Default More Flooding - 26/02/2007

    Mozambique hit by more flooding after cyclone rain.

    February 26, 2007, 07:15


    The Buzi river in central Sofala province overflowed its banks at dawn, threatening up to 145 000 people in the district, after the remnants of cyclone Favio pounded the area.

    "We are facing a serious flooding drama," district administrator Sergio Moyane said in area capital Beira. "There are many houses under water and many fields have been swamped."

    The cyclone slammed into the coast on Thursday, killing five people near the southern tourist town of Vilanculos, and although it was downgraded to a tropical storm, it brought pounding rains to a region already struggling to cope with flooding.

    Moyane said the storm damaged buildings as it swept through the area on Saturday, bringing downpours that filled the already swollen Buzi river. Sugar cane fields were in danger of being damaged, he added.

    Relief workers are battling to supply food and fresh water to some 140 000 people who have been displaced by flooding in four central provinces. The floods have killed 40 people and 53 000 people have moved to accommodation centres.

    Neighbouring South Africa and the European Union on Saturday both pledged more help for the relief effort.

    Search for victims
    Further south near Vilanculos, a resort town that bore the full brunt of the cyclone's 270kph winds on Thursday, authorities were searching for affected people in the area.

    "Because of the communication problems we are still looking for people either stranded or injured," said Casmiro Abreu, the spokesperson for the emergency operation centre run by Mozambique's national relief agency INGC.

    Officials were seeking to help 36 000 people in the area who lost virtually all their possessions. "We are currently distributing a little amount of food which we have and building toilets," Abreu said. - Reuters

  6. #6
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    I will be heading to Vilanculos from JHB on Wednesday to take a few essential supplies.

    Some of which are :

    - Plastic to temporarily repair roofs
    - Some basic food
    - Medical stuff
    - Drums to transport and store diesel

    I am still looking for a chainsaw which I would need to borrow for about 7 to 10 days.


    if you can help with any of the above please contact me at [email protected]

    I will report back on the situation when I get back.

    Thankyou,

    Bruce Turner
    VilanculosResorts.com

  7. #7
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    Hi Jaco

    I've been abroad recently and have really been out of touch. My trip is still on for the end of the month. I will decide closer to the time if I'll be venturing towards Vilancoulous. Worst case scenario I'll be spending most of my time in Santa Maria. Good spot for kingies I believe.

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