Weather forecasting; Getting it more wrong

[wolley]

Given complexities in weather systems, one would 'give' allowances for not getting it 100% right, all the time. With evolved data systems, improved data capturing, sharper modelling techniques and faster computer systems, one would still think that weather forecasting would get it 'more right' as years passes by. Instead, I am observing that Apps would conflict with each other, that erroneous forecasting is the order of the day, and that forecasted results are more 'wrong', and less reliable.

Are weather patterns getting more complex or have the systems and skills to operate them fallen out the bus?

My question is not about tactical reporting to support earth warming and similar concepts but just getting it wrong in the next 18 hour period

What is your experience?

[BruceHun]

Agree, I use 4 different apps to check the sea, wind etc. none agree totally. So now I just wait until early morning, listen to the waves and check the sea swell, if there is a breeze or not, ripples on the ocean, clouds as well. This already tells you a lot. If I see the locals walking down to the sea with their rods then I know the Easterly is coming. I also check my barometer 3 or 4 times a day for the highs and lows.

[PsyPhin]

I have completely given up on weather apps. They are not even close most of the time.

I can be standing in a thunderstorm and the apps recon full sunshine and 0% rain all day.

If they had the slightest suspicion of rain, they could say 1% chance, right?

[wolley]

So when I travel I need a sense of actual weather status to decide when to connect my solar system to city power. I need to ask someone in the area now 'if its cloudy', et al. One pretty much knows cloud density looking at the energy generated but it does not tell how lasting clouds could be.

[River Rat]

I was chatting to a Professor of Metereology who is a canoeing mate about the impact on climate change on their forecasting models. He says that there are multiple new weather trends evident but there's very little historical data of these new trends to use in terms of forecasting. So expect it to get worse before it gets better.

[Tony Weaver]

Most "weather" apps are coarse forecasts covering a region, a district, a metropole. If you use a precise app like Windy you can zone in to suburb or mountain or river bed level.
We hike in the mountains or use the sea almost daily and accurate weather info is crucial. A combination of Windy and Windguru (the latter only available near to large bodies of water) never let us down.

[Naes-Landy]

Here you go. Works in real time. You can thank me later

[Morne - Skip]

Totally useless.

[Henkus]

Afrikaans...weervoorspelling.... ek gee dit vir hulle dat hulle dit maar mag verkeerd voorspel.

[YesDear]

I use a combination of sites, including fishing sites, and have figured out which is reliable on what aspects of the weather.

But get used to climate change. Not only will weather forecasting become more difficult, but the weather itself will become more erratic. Depending on where you live you are already experiencing the beginning of it. In all likelihood, crops will also become confused and less reliable...that farmer's almanac that tells you on which day to start planting what...I think that's on its way out :/