How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running? - Page 2





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  1. #21
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by vlakkie View Post
    Should not be a problem.There is a movement whereby classic cars are not only restored , but upgraded to an "OEM level" with modern technology. ....Not everyone's taste I will agreeSuch as: - Aston Martin - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PREftlfZuXA - VW - https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/5/20...urt-motor-showToyota Land Cruiser and Hilux - https://www.tembo4x4-elv.com/- https://www.greencarreports.com/news...th-a-crate-v-8
    This is just wrong.
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  3. #22
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    I think about this quite often and although Im a petrol/diesel head, their demise would be on economical grounds.
    If I can travel from Cape Town to Joburg on R30 worth of electricity, then I would quickly buy electric cars, because its just makes sense.
    Saving money will quickly change even the most ardent supporters opinion.

    Restoring and having old classic vehicles would become an hobby.

    Kinda like steamtrains.

  4. #23
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mapog View Post
    I think about this quite often and although Im a petrol/diesel head, their demise would be on economical grounds.
    If I can travel from Cape Town to Joburg on R30 worth of electricity, then I would quickly buy electric cars, because its just makes sense.
    Saving money will quickly change even the most ardent supporters opinion.

    Restoring and having old classic vehicles would become an hobby.

    Kinda like steamtrains.
    nee wat

    When it comes to physics there is no free lunch.

    To move a mass, you need energy. Whether that potential energy comes from petrol or electricity makes no difference.

    Work out the energy needed to move 1 ton for 1000kms and the time it will take. That is your KwH amount. You need to replace that from the grid. Work out the cost of buying that from Eksdom.

    It won't be cheaper. EVER.
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  5. #24
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    A 1 MW Cummins diesel generator ( Read: "A good modern diesel generator") generates power at roughly 0.237 liters diesel per 1 kw.hr electricity

    At R13.00/liter diesel = R 13.00/0.237 = R 3.08 / kW.hr (diesel generated)

    Eskom Coal generated power and charged at Municipal rates for Tshwane = R 1.87 /kw.hr (Coal generated....with a drizzle of solar and wind in there...somewhere)

    A BMW i3 consumes 12.9kW.hr/100 km and other battery electric cars are even better. ( In diesel terms that is about 3l diesel / 100km...if it was a very good diesel engine. )

    You can see where this is going in terms of which energy is cheaper to drive a car a 1000 km.

    The sticky point at this stage is the finance cost on the R 750 000 BMW i3 REX ( and if you can live with the looks ) , which if it was a conventional car one could argue would have cost in the ~ R 450 000 range
    Last edited by vlakkie; 2020/05/15 at 10:44 AM.
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  6. #25
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    re "We are in Africa, the ICE will hang around for decades after the first world goes all green,", bear in mind that Africa leads the world in solar power, at least as far as I can see. I haven't been anywhere in Central Africa recently, and my last visits to North Africa were a few years ago now, however pretty much throughout Southern and Eastern Africa I've seen solar panels everywhere - the primary source of power in every town and village seems to be solar. It's true that the cities still operate on a combination of power-station-generated electricity and wood or charcoal fires (with forests being destroyed to make charcoal which is then hauled into the cities as the cheapest energy option).

    Countries like Norway, Germany, and so on are leading the charge (pun not intended) to electric power, however the USA is still a massive energy consumer and (especially under the current (another unintended pun) "administration") is doing almost nothing to shift power production away from fossil fuels, and is in fact doing quite a lot to avoid this move. The cost of power distribution in most of Africa, as well as in a lot of countries in South America and Asia, will I believe put these regions in the lead on shifting to non-fossil fuels, at least for home energy needs.

    It will not be permitted to enter a lot of Western European cities in vehicles with ICEs within the decade.

    I agree that "remote" 4x4 travel is going to be with ICEs for a while yet, although think that diesel will be replaced by petrol before long, at least if people want to be able to use their 4x4s in urban environments as well. Electric 4x4s with reasonable range are definitely coming (however I'll have to get a very big storage tank for petrol for my other car, which I hope to be able to drive for a couple of decades yet).

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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by vlakkie View Post
    A BMW i3 consumes 12.9kW.hr/100 km and other battery electric cars are even better. ( In diesel terms that is about 3l diesel / 100km...if it was a very good diesel engine. )

    You can see where this is going in terms of which energy is cheaper to drive a car a 1000 km.

    The sticky point at this stage is the finance cost on the R 750 000 BMW i3 REX ( and if you can live with the looks ) , which if it was a conventional car one could argue would have cost in the ~ R 450 000 range
    Yes, you see. You don't get the car for free. A R300k modern turbo diesel, as you say at 5L/100 or less, would probably never ever reach R750k cost in it's lifetime so where is the ROI?
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by jelo View Post
    The fossil fuel vehicle, be it diesel, petrol or gas, will not disappear in our lifetimes.

    But I am pretty sure the internal combustion engine product range will decrease and the guys currently driving luxury barges will have to switch to hybrid or full EV.
    I agree with you. As EV's and other alternatives gain market traction demand for fossil fuels will fall and the price of oil will fall-long before reserves run out. Then there is synthetic replacements-from coal is just one of these. I see IC engines dying a slow natural death rather than being legislated out of use. Their makers would have moved on and spares will become difficult to access for most vehicles. There will be outliers-as always, the kanniedood models of collectors-Landies, Land Cruisers etc. Here's hoping!

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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by rob wilson View Post
    I agree with you. As EV's and other alternatives gain market traction demand for fossil fuels will fall and the price of oil will fall-long before reserves run out. Then there is synthetic replacements-from coal is just one of these. I see IC engines dying a slow natural death rather than being legislated out of use. Their makers would have moved on and spares will become difficult to access for most vehicles. There will be outliers-as always, the kanniedood models of collectors-Landies, Land Cruisers etc. Here's hoping!
    ICE will never die out in 3rd world countries. Yes, we might be driving Chinese, Indian, or Brazilian vehicles, but ICE will never die.
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  10. #29
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by jelo View Post
    nee wat

    When it comes to physics there is no free lunch.

    To move a mass, you need energy. Whether that potential energy comes from petrol or electricity makes no difference.

    Work out the energy needed to move 1 ton for 1000kms and the time it will take. That is your KwH amount. You need to replace that from the grid. Work out the cost of buying that from Eksdom.

    It won't be cheaper. EVER.
    Mmmm, my brother drives a TeslaX, use USD60 in electricity per month where his X5 V8 used USD600 in petrol per month.

    They do get preferential electricity tarrifs for charging car overnight, had a 220V plug fitted to his garage as 110V takes too long to recharge.

  11. #30
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hedgehog View Post
    I'm looking to buy a classic vehicle. Either a car or a bike.
    I am somewhat of a sucker for older Mercs and BMs (1970 - 1980) and classic 70 era café racers and cruisers, but the availability of leaded fuel and additives are a bit of an issue.
    Unless I am mistaken and it will be freely available for some time.

    But this got me thinking.
    The current generation young petrol heads, will be finding our current cars as classics in 20 to 40 years time.

    How will the electric car, and future fuel availability influence them?
    What do you regard as a classic vehicle if I may ask ?

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  12. #31
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by jelo View Post
    nee wat

    When it comes to physics there is no free lunch.

    To move a mass, you need energy. Whether that potential energy comes from petrol or electricity makes no difference.

    Work out the energy needed to move 1 ton for 1000kms and the time it will take. That is your KwH amount. You need to replace that from the grid. Work out the cost of buying that from Eksdom.

    It won't be cheaper. EVER.
    Jelo there is never a free lunch, agreed. But you need to take a few factors into consideration and they are profit margins and taxes which you clearly have not. In SA the taxes on fuel are HEAVY .... Electricity although taxed heavily still works out substantially cheaper per KW/h than fuel. The electricity price will carry on going up while fuel looks like a yo-yo but electricity will remain cheaper. If it ever approaches fuel well then supplement your charge with solar. Solar will battle to replace (maybe impossible) your electrical outlet when it comes to charging but used as a supplement will definitely make a huge difference.

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  14. #32
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by faniedup View Post
    Mmmm, my brother drives a TeslaX, use USD60 in electricity per month where his X5 V8 used USD600 in petrol per month.

    They do get preferential electricity tarrifs for charging car overnight, had a 220V plug fitted to his garage as 110V takes too long to recharge.
    Let me try break that down.

    average fuel cost of $2.237 / gallon
    average elec. costs (13.19c /kwh)
    average economies of 39kwh/100miles and 29mpg

    Your brothers monthly cost comparison of 10/1 is not even vaguely apples for apples.

    Model X (1,166miles) BMW X5 (7,778miles)

  15. #33
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by alannymarce View Post
    re "We are in Africa, the ICE will hang around for decades after the first world goes all green,", .
    ...interestingly enough I know of a Tesla Model X in Zimbabwe , but not in South Africa.

    https://zwnews.com/first-electrical-...tesla-model-x/

    They have fuel shortages and load shedding much worse than South Africa. I guess regardless of load shedding, it is more convenient to "refuel" with stable electricity prices at home, than waiting your turn at fuel stations with erratic pricing.

    That being said, I think the car was bought more to serve as a "store of value" in USD terms in a country with run away inflation
    Last edited by vlakkie; 2020/05/21 at 11:18 AM.
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  16. #34
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Faddel View Post
    Jelo there is never a free lunch, agreed. But you need to take a few factors into consideration and they are profit margins and taxes which you clearly have not. In SA the taxes on fuel are HEAVY .... Electricity although taxed heavily still works out substantially cheaper per KW/h than fuel. The electricity price will carry on going up while fuel looks like a yo-yo but electricity will remain cheaper. If it ever approaches fuel well then supplement your charge with solar. Solar will battle to replace (maybe impossible) your electrical outlet when it comes to charging but used as a supplement will definitely make a huge difference.
    I suppose. In the end, the rich will have battery banks and rows of solar panels for their charging stations, while the poor will do what they do now: steal off the grid.............
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  17. #35
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by vlakkie View Post
    A 1 MW Cummins diesel generator ( Read: "A good modern diesel generator") generates power at roughly 0.237 liters diesel per 1 kw.hr electricity

    At R13.00/liter diesel = R 13.00/0.237 = R 3.08 / kW.hr (diesel generated)

    Eskom Coal generated power and charged at Municipal rates for Tshwane = R 1.87 /kw.hr (Coal generated....with a drizzle of solar and wind in there...somewhere)

    A BMW i3 consumes 12.9kW.hr/100 km and other battery electric cars are even better. ( In diesel terms that is about 3l diesel / 100km...if it was a very good diesel engine. )

    You can see where this is going in terms of which energy is cheaper to drive a car a 1000 km.

    The sticky point at this stage is the finance cost on the R 750 000 BMW i3 REX ( and if you can live with the looks ) , which if it was a conventional car one could argue would have cost in the ~ R 450 000 range
    Thank you Vlakkie

    You touch on the real reasons. Apart from a battery system that needs more development, the vehicle OEM's all develop electric vehicles that are differentiated from the ICE equivalents. So called modern styling and lots of software goodies.

    This they then want to market at hugely elevated prices. They pretend somewhat about the environment, but mostly they only look after their own profits. Hybrid vehicles does make sense and does serve the short distance as well as long distance markets but again at a hugely elevated pricing structure.

    By example, where can I get a Toyota Hilux bakkie with electric power, a range of 800 km and 10 minute energy refill, cleaner on the manufacturing environment and for a cheaper price than the ICE direct comparable equivalent.?
    Find the solutions, not the problems.

  18. #36
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by JBX View Post
    By example, where can I get a Toyota Hilux bakkie with electric power, a range of 800 km and 10 minute energy refill, cleaner on the manufacturing environment and for a cheaper price than the ICE direct comparable equivalent.?
    Jy gaan lank soek.
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by jelo View Post
    Jy gaan lank soek.
    Exactly...

  20. #38
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by jelo View Post
    Jy gaan lank soek.
    That was a hypothetical question as it will never happen because oem are screwing us as usual.

    however, the oil industry will fight back
    Find the solutions, not the problems.

  21. #39
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by jelo View Post
    Jy gaan lank soek.
    ...ek het daai hilux gekry

    https://www.tembo4x4-elv.com/Technical-Specs


    ..maar hy ry nog net 160 km met die 56 kW.hr opsie op 'n tjaarts !

    Wat ek eindelik wil se is die goed ( Battery Hilux wat 800 km ry en 10 min charge) is dalk nader as wat ons dink en in 'n vorm wat nie heeltemal onbekend sal wees nie.

    Ons voorsate kon gewoond raak daaraan dat die ding wat ons rondra en wa sleep nie meer runnik, moe en gras eet nie , maar nou brom en diesel en petrol drink.

    Die ding wat ons nou gaan rondra gaan stil wees en sparkie juice drink by die muurprop

    Dit bly beter as loop sonder aircon en jou eie waentjie sleep
    Last edited by vlakkie; 2020/05/21 at 11:00 PM.
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  22. #40
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    Default Re: How long will we be able to keep the internal combustion engine running?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamtheman View Post
    We are in Africa, the ICE will hang around for decades after the first world goes all green,
    Or till all oil reserves everywhere are depleted.

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