Rand weakens, why?





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  1. #1
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    Default Rand weakens, why?

    The ZAR has weakened rather suddenly, but why?
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    I think the number one reason is outside of our control. The virus is making people run from risk and we are classified as risk.

    So on top of our own issues we get nailed for the world's issues.
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    As indicated worldwide people are getting out of riskier investments and for that reason all emerging currencies and shares are taking a dive. Blame it on the virus. With Resources coming down big time due to the negative affects of the China economy gives a great time to be adding to them.

    The Rand is a proxy for emerging market currencies due to the high liquid level for trading the Rand.

    Further markets were on a very very high level with the S&P 500 up 15.5% in 4 months at the peak a few weeks ago. Markets were looking for profit taking and this virus just gave a very good reason. I feel within 2-3 months we could see another new high on the S&P 500. This is a healthy correction in a up trend.

    My 2c.

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    Last edited by ekkekan; 2020/02/01 at 11:02 AM.

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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    It doesn't help that SAA is bailed out, looks like ESKOM will continue as is and good change of a junk status.
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal Hannes View Post
    I think the number one reason is outside of our control. The virus is making people run from risk and we are classified as risk.

    So on top of our own issues we get nailed for the world's issues.
    cANCer virus?

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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    My opinion, apart from the Virus -

    The SAA situation where they are having to cancel flights they can't afford because they are losing money constantly, and then they just recieved a R3.5 Billion bailout that will have to be paid by our taxes has had a negative impact.

    ESKOM being in the news again for the next round of "planned" loadshedding.

    January saw a lot of media attention of the ANC's plan for Expropriation Without Compensation which will totally destroy our economy.

    There were also statements by banks, clearly stating that even if your property gets taken buy government, you will still be liable to pay off the bond on a property you dont own.

    January also saw lots of media attention for the upcoming National Health Insurance scheme, which is another huge negative for our economy.

    Now my opinion on the Coronavirus -

    I truly believe that the Coronavirus is being made much bigger than it really is by the media who is creating this storm. To put it in perspective, in the last 2 months 269 people have died from the Coronavirus. In that same time approximately 107000 people died from Flu (ave of 1780 per day), approximately 168000 people died from Malaria (ave of 2800 per day) and approximately 246000 people died of TB (ave of 4100 per day).

    Remember that most mainstream media houses are owned by the leftists, which use them as propoganda machines and to create smoke-screens. So whenever a story suddenly becomes Worldwide news and dominates the news and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, I always ask myself, what do they want to draw our attention away from. In this case it surely is the Trump Impeachment Trial that is going seriously south for the Democrats. The left would far rather have you Google'ing, Posting and Tweeting about the Coronavirus, than following the Impeachment Trials.
    Last edited by Brannas; 2020/02/01 at 01:02 PM.

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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    In the medium to slightly longer term I do expect considerable Rand weakening due to both local and world based issues.

    For a start - look at the inflation rate differentials and our political / socialistic and EWC policies and .....

    THEN look at what is happening in some slightly saner parts of the world.

    Also remember that we are a very small fish in a big sea.
    The big boys out there PLAY with our currency.

    Why am I not surprised ?
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Corona virus

    all emerging currencies have dropped.

    oil also dropped from $60 per barrel to $56
    overnight. Low demand predicted due to flights being suspended to China

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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1949 View Post
    In the medium to slightly longer term I do expect considerable Rand weakening due to both local and world based issues.

    For a start - look at the inflation rate differentials and our political / socialistic and EWC policies and .....

    THEN look at what is happening in some slightly saner parts of the world.

    Also remember that we are a very small fish in a big sea.
    The big boys out there PLAY with our currency.

    Why am I not surprised ?
    Inflate rate differentials as well as the EWC policies have already been priced in.

    The weakening comes from the uncertainty of the Coronavirus. Look at the JSE that also came under fire. -0.9% ending on Friday.

    Another indicator is the $ vs . See screenshot.
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Australia dollar also down
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Karol View Post
    Australia dollar also down
    ... good ...
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    It is because I was buying dollars on Wed! When I buy rand weakens otherwise it strengthens....guaranteed!
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Karol View Post
    Australia dollar also down
    I always thought it was already down under?C
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Although it looks bad to move from R14 to R15 in one month it seems to be just a change in sentiment lately. Given that in Oct 2019 it was actually much weaker and things in SA just does not improve or at least putting forward a plan to improve matters.
    Last edited by ekkekan; 2020/02/01 at 08:54 PM.

  17. #15
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brannas View Post
    My opinion, apart from the Virus -

    The SAA situation where they are having to cancel flights they can't afford because they are losing money constantly, and then they just recieved a R3.5 Billion bailout that will have to be paid by our taxes has had a negative impact.

    ESKOM being in the news again for the next round of "planned" loadshedding.

    January saw a lot of media attention of the ANC's plan for Expropriation Without Compensation which will totally destroy our economy.

    There were also statements by banks, clearly stating that even if your property gets taken buy government, you will still be liable to pay off the bond on a property you dont own.

    January also saw lots of media attention for the upcoming National Health Insurance scheme, which is another huge negative for our economy.

    Now my opinion on the Coronavirus -

    I truly believe that the Coronavirus is being made much bigger than it really is by the media who is creating this storm. To put it in perspective, in the last 2 months 269 people have died from the Coronavirus. In that same time approximately 107000 people died from Flu (ave of 1780 per day), approximately 168000 people died from Malaria (ave of 2800 per day) and approximately 246000 people died of TB (ave of 4100 per day).

    Remember that most mainstream media houses are owned by the leftists, which use them as propoganda machines and to create smoke-screens. So whenever a story suddenly becomes Worldwide news and dominates the news and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, I always ask myself, what do they want to draw our attention away from. In this case it surely is the Trump Impeachment Trial that is going seriously south for the Democrats. The left would far rather have you Google'ing, Posting and Tweeting about the Coronavirus, than following the Impeachment Trials.
    The question is, if the Corona virus infects as many people as the Influenza virus, how many will die?

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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by supersunbird View Post
    The question is, if the Corona virus infects as many people as the Influenza virus, how many will die?
    Spanish flu infected about 500 milj and killed anything between 50 and 100 milj. So long way to go. That actually stopped WW1.

    Asian Influenza 900 milj infected and 1 to 4 milj dead

    HK Influenza 1 000 milj against a bit under milj dead

    SARS 8000/774

    Be free to pick one.
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko View Post
    Spanish flu infected about 500 milj and killed anything between 50 and 100 milj. So long way to go. That actually stopped WW1.

    Asian Influenza 900 milj infected and 1 to 4 milj dead

    HK Influenza 1 000 milj against a bit under milj dead

    SARS 8000/774

    Be free to pick one.
    And the modern ones had lots of news about it, there was less "news" around in 1918 and 1968.

  20. #18
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    in my opinion normal risk-off action happening in the back, usd will gain against the "riskier" currencies. One must also realize the trade impact of the virus and when that will be priced in. Gold also up nicely. Such fun.
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by BruceHun View Post
    It is because I was buying dollars on Wed! When I buy rand weakens otherwise it strengthens....guaranteed!
    strange as this must seem, we must be related...
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  22. #20
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    Default Re: Rand weakens, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by BruceHun View Post
    It is because I was buying dollars on Wed! When I buy rand weakens otherwise it strengthens....guaranteed!
    Same here, I hang on to my salary as long as possible before pulling it to rand. Last week it was not R15
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