New energy plan gazetted





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  1. #1
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    Default New energy plan gazetted

    Plan has been gazetted. Expect a big fight on one item:
    - 2500 MW of nuclear (immediately). Interesting amount. Not the amount any supplier can offer so they cannot be indicating which company. Russians would be under at 2400 MW and Areva well over at 3600 MW for 2 units. AREVA design is there and 3 units under construction. Long delays. Russian unit is being designed and there is now 4 year delay for the first design. There are other designs but they do not exist or are older technology.

    - Koeberg will be extended by 20 years. Main items needed are new steam generators

    - Government will immediately start buying power from private suppliers. This is really good news. Hopefully mines, paper mills, sugar plants etc will start building plants. Old times for instance gold mine had pay back time 6 months on small water turbine. Would not install many. One reason Eskom's monopoly. A lot of potential energy is wasted as the plants could not sell the electricity, coal was too cheap and "we are not interested"

    https://www.fin24.com/Economy/South-...etted-20191018

    Edit: I see minister says modular smaller units. Russians have some small, PBMR is no go, Koreans have modular but I would think they are classified as large. Have to do some research.
    Last edited by Jouko; 2019/10/18 at 10:49 AM. Reason: Nuclear
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Small modular reactors:
    https://www.world-nuclear.org/inform...-reactors.aspx

    Looks like China or Russia just now.
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko View Post
    Plan has been gazetted. Expect a big fight on one item:
    - 2500 MW of nuclear (immediately). Interesting amount. Not the amount any supplier can offer so they cannot be indicating which company. Russians would be under at 2400 MW and Areva well over at 3600 MW for 2 units. AREVA design is there and 3 units under construction. Long delays. Russian unit is being designed and there is now 4 year delay for the first design. There are other designs but they do not exist or are older technology.

    - Koeberg will be extended by 20 years. Main items needed are new steam generators

    - Government will immediately start buying power from private suppliers. This is really good news. Hopefully mines, paper mills, sugar plants etc will start building plants. Old times for instance gold mine had pay back time 6 months on small water turbine. Would not install many. One reason Eskom's monopoly. A lot of potential energy is wasted as the plants could not sell the electricity, coal was too cheap and "we are not interested"

    https://www.fin24.com/Economy/South-...etted-20191018

    Edit: I see minister says modular smaller units. Russians have some small, PBMR is no go, Koreans have modular but I would think they are classified as large. Have to do some research.
    That’s not how I read it.

    The 2500MW will be made up of “small modular units”. So there could be several, and not necessarily from the sources you name.

    Personally I think this bill is a very positive move forward.
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Goverment will start buying privately generated current? How? More than likely via Eksdom, who would distribute private power on behalf of the private generators, bill Gov and then monies paid by Gov will simply disappear into Eksdom's dark vaults without touching walls
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko View Post
    Small modular reactors:
    https://www.world-nuclear.org/inform...-reactors.aspx

    Looks like China or Russia just now.
    Very interesting article. I particularly like the references to Thorium based reactors.
    Cheers

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by julius caesar View Post
    Goverment will start buying privately generated current? How? More than likely via Eksdom, who would distribute private power on behalf of the private generators, bill Gov and then monies paid by Gov will simply disappear into Eksdom's dark vaults without touching walls
    Some people can never be pleased. Every ray of sunshine has a thick layer of dark cloud to get thru.
    Cheers

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    It looks like a positive solution, but apart from the nuclear short term patch, the mentioning of buying energy from private suppliers would have a huge impact.
    Example Europe, where solar energy is at premium but still the amount generated by private suppliers is so big that there is an overproduction and the returns have already been reduced to make it less attractive.
    Now thinking of the solar yield in this region a similar installation as in Europe would generate at least 250% more yearly energy.

    And one more good thing, no need for new inventions, all technologies are readily available and proven.
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    So it's a new new energy plan then.

    https://mg.co.za/article/2018-08-27-...ew-energy-plan

    And how many before that...

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Kalahari Safari View Post
    It looks like a positive solution, but apart from the nuclear short term patch, the mentioning of buying energy from private suppliers would have a huge impact.
    Example Europe, where solar energy is at premium but still the amount generated by private suppliers is so big that there is an overproduction and the returns have already been reduced to make it less attractive.
    Now thinking of the solar yield in this region a similar installation as in Europe would generate at least 250% more yearly energy.

    And one more good thing, no need for new inventions, all technologies are readily available and proven.
    European legislation got it wrong. Initial feed in tariffs where significantly higher than actual grid generation costs. Part of the rationale was paying for carbon credits.

    This led to a severe unbalance in the natural supply/demand structures
    Cheers

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffy View Post
    Some people can never be pleased. Every ray of sunshine has a thick layer of dark cloud to get thru.
    A friend of mine used to say he is not a pessimist, but a realist.

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffy View Post
    Some people can never be pleased. Every ray of sunshine has a thick layer of dark cloud to get thru.
    And we still have Jelo's doom and gloom pronouncement to come! Is it the result of drinking too much craft beer (or not enough)?

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffy View Post
    Very interesting article. I particularly like the references to Thorium based reactors.
    I like the small units but there are some problems:
    - Some are so small that you can lift them on a back of a truck. Even bigger units have the security issue. It needs to be solved
    - Licensing. Current laws are problem
    - Anything under design is years from building

    Russian units in general are very robust (PWR units) but their instrumentation is not on Western standards and Russian have no or minimal protection in case of an accident. Chinese? Interesting one is Canadian.

    Americans have reliable small reactors but those will not be for sale easily. Aircraft carriers and submarines.
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffy View Post
    Some people can never be pleased. Every ray of sunshine has a thick layer of dark cloud to get thru.
    Fluffy, not a matter of being pleased or displeased, but i have lost faith in Eskom as far as money matters are concerned.

    Way i see things, quality of private power production would have to controlled (and Eskom has systems to control quality) but this links them in the payment / refund operation. Latter is where pawpaw will hit the fan

    Private power = ray of sunshine
    Eskom= very dark cloud : on a sunny day in summer i am filling up my gennie's fuel tank?
    Last edited by julius caesar; 2019/10/18 at 11:29 AM.
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  14. #14
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffy View Post
    European legislation got it wrong. Initial feed in tariffs where significantly higher than actual grid generation costs. Part of the rationale was paying for carbon credits.

    This led to a severe unbalance in the natural supply/demand structures
    Tax payer was supporting totally uneconomical technology. Like Germany is full of "wind mills" that do not work. Too high or low wind.

    Any plant that is not profitable without subsidy is harmful for the nature. Plant that is not economical requires more energy and resources that it can produce.

    Build small number, test, improve and repeat. When break even is reached hit the gas pedal.

    Not electricity production but related issue. "Energy savers" for lights was totally wrong decision. A bit later LED lights came and polluting and outdated energy savers are now replaced on high cost on everything.

    Subsidies can be used for development but not for production.
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    Post Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffy View Post
    European legislation got it wrong. Initial feed in tariffs where significantly higher than actual grid generation costs. Part of the rationale was paying for carbon credits.

    This led to a severe unbalance in the natural supply/demand structures
    It has been adjusted in to ways:

    1- early investors got higher tariffs on feeds so to generate an immediate uptake, this has now been reduced to keep the supply / demand in balance (running contracts go for their duration up to 15 years)

    2- excess energy is now used to pump water into higher laying dams to be release through the turbines a second time to cater for peak load situations

    In this the need for building new power plants has drastically been reduced especially in the wake of cutting down nuclear power plants and their waste products
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  16. #16
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko View Post
    Tax payer was supporting totally uneconomical technology. Like Germany is full of "wind mills" that do not work. Too high or low wind.

    Any plant that is not profitable without subsidy is harmful for the nature. Plant that is not economical requires more energy and resources that it can produce.

    Build small number, test, improve and repeat. When break even is reached hit the gas pedal.

    Not electricity production but related issue. "Energy savers" for lights was totally wrong decision. A bit later LED lights came and polluting and outdated energy savers are now replaced on high cost on everything.

    Subsidies can be used for development but not for production.

    I am not sure I can underwrite this statement as a whole albeit I partly agree with it.

    The concept of testing it out and multiply when economical is undoubtedly the way to go, but I am sure it has been followed to a great extent or adpated from others where there was data available.

    The subsidy part can be used in different ways, the way it was done in Switzerland, the early "inventors" got a tax reduction on investments up to CH 100k from the government (as by the tax authorities)
    They furter got a deal for supply of 15 years of energy at a given tariff, established just below average production costs of conventional energy production.
    These packages have been adapted to the falling production costs so later joiners got smaller yield of their investments, thee tax reduction part remained the same.

    The effect was that every farmer or factory owner built their solar plant onto their roofs and started feeding into the grid.

    Considering the falling prices on solar modules the investment part was reduced whereas the production part multiplied.

    Now compared to the homeowner's package where you have to store the energy yourselves in battery banks, the grid tied solution eliminated this heavy cost factor by buffering from the network.
    Batteries of modern design and technology today cost about 25-40% of the investment budget, but for SA it would still be a requirement as the distribution network is not failproof, through factors of missing backup routing or management shortfalls.

    But All-in-All the concept has proven itself for a while now and as said before, SA has at least 250% of sunshine hours compared to average Europe.

    The energy saver bulbs is just a part of evolution and technical progress, so it can't be faulted.
    In the vehicle sector everyone has witnessed progression from Halogen to HID discharge and now to LED over the last 10 years, the future holds more potential with LED matrix and laser technology.
    Same goes for industrial or home applications, target is lower energy consumption, higher output and longevity.
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  17. #17
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Due to the long lead times for the seismic hazard (earthquake resistance) design of NPP's, any immediate building plans would entail the 2500 MW to be installed at ONE site. As far as I know, only Thyspunt west of Cape St Francis on the Eastern Cape coast has gone through the full assessment.

    With regard to extending Koeberg for another 20 years, this has been long known. What is not known is whether Eskom is putting aside money to be able to afford the decommissioning (current) cost of about R20 billion (at least) for this job when the time comes.

    In terms of replacing the 1800 MW produced by the present Koeberg plant, nuclear energy certainly is the most elegant solution for us in the SW Cape, but it is both costly and always opens up a Pandora's box of issues. So do not expect that to happen soon as well.

    Also, the National Nuclear Regulator has recently been reported to suffer from a severe lack of funding, so, more doom and gloom indeed for the implementation of more nuclear power in the RSA.
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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Reading different reports and what is discussed here does not rhyme with this.

    By far the biggest share of new generation capacity will come from wind (14,400MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) (6,000MW), which are the two cheapest technologies available for electricity generation. Eskom will be free to participate in this market and build new renewable energy capacity, Mantashe said.


    SA will also need new coal generation capacity of 1,500MW with hydro power (2,500MW), storage (2088MW) and gas (3000MW) making up the rest of the supply.
    No new nuclear power generation is planned over the period but the life of Koeberg is to be extended 20 years, up until 2044. Modular nuclear generation plants could come under consideration in the period after 2030 but would be procured “at the cost and pace the country can afford”, said Mantashe.
    https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/na...w-energy-plan/

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    What goes into the plan and what actually happens are likely to be far removed. At least the big Zuma style Russian nuclear option seems to be gone.
    Last edited by Ian.McM; 2019/10/18 at 07:04 PM.

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    Default Re: New energy plan gazetted

    Confusion reigns supreme, yes. The older report said no new nuclear for the time being, something that made good sense in terms of the worldwide resistance against NPP's, our lack of economic growth and ridiculous cost, with long lead times and construction time overruns (e.g. Finland, France, U.K. Hinkley Point).
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