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  1. #81
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Estee View Post
    I would like to see the annual stats by year from 1984 through to current. Was it always this bad? It doesnt seem as if it was so whats changed/different, say in the last decade or so?

    What do the economic migration figures look like for the same period? My assumption would be that there has been quite a bit of migration from these areas to more urbanised/industrialised areas. So overlay these sets of data with the population data and lets see if we can get some perspective.

    In short, if there has been an increase in crime and an increase in economic migration from the area and the population has also grown or remained static or decreased, then poverty might not be the issue. Lack of fear of repercussion might actually be the issue and if this is supported by the chiefs via a protection racket slant, then the issue is a major one and has nothing to do with poverty.
    I never trust anything where I can't see the RAW data... I only have the basic data for this graph only in an image that needs to be captured to evaluate further. But even just looking at the graph here... there are other factors that have not been identified at work.

    Paper here... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10....25802417748098 but I have no faith in the conclusion, even if the other facts are correct.
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Oats View Post
    @Jola...you are almost correct

    Unfortunately, this is a purposeful agenda - do not think for one moment its because of 'incompetence'

    The puppet masters of our govt wouldnt want it any other way

    Suggest people go watch a documentary 'Europa:The Final Battle' to get clued up [ unfortunately, YouTube banned it....or have tried ]
    Theres a reason this doco is banned....what a load!
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  5. #83
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by MarcR View Post
    I never trust anything where I can't see the RAW data... I only have the basic data for this graph only in an image that needs to be captured to evaluate further. But even just looking at the graph here... there are other factors that have not been identified at work.

    Paper here... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10....25802417748098 but I have no faith in the conclusion, even if the other facts are correct.
    Itís heartbreaking to read this........and it makes you worried:

    ďThey consume excessive amounts of alcohol, as well as drugs, and engage in risky behaviours. Sixty per cent of murders occur among males aged 15Ė44 years, making homicide the third leading cause of death for malesĒ

    The snowball effect: no work so lets do drugs and turn to crime. So business investment dries up and all job opportunities disappear.

    What then, more crime? Where does it end.

    This applies to the whole of Africa.

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  7. #84
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Zapiture View Post
    Itís heartbreaking to read this........and it makes you worried:

    ďThey consume excessive amounts of alcohol, as well as drugs, and engage in risky behaviours. Sixty per cent of murders occur among males aged 15Ė44 years, making homicide the third leading cause of death for malesĒ

    The snowball effect: no work so lets do drugs and turn to crime. So business investment dries up and all job opportunities disappear.

    What then, more crime? Where does it end.

    This applies to the whole of Africa.
    Many of us, me included, have hit rock bottom. It's hard and painful, but it's also the strongest foundation upon which to rise up from again (learning from your mistakes, putting everything into perspective, do things the right way, etc.). However, the saying goes that when Africa hits rock bottom, it digs and eventually entombs itself. How do you change the mindset of a continent? You can't, you can only keep your side clear and be vigilant in the protection of your loved ones, your property and yourself. Avoiding these dodgy places is a good example.
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Jens78 View Post
    Many of us, me included, have hit rock bottom. It's hard and painful, but it's also the strongest foundation upon which to rise up from again (learning from your mistakes, putting everything into perspective, do things the right way, etc.). However, the saying goes that when Africa hits rock bottom, it digs and eventually entombs itself. How do you change the mindset of a continent? You can't, you can only keep your side clear and be vigilant in the protection of your loved ones, your property and yourself. Avoiding these dodgy places is a good example.
    After two really bad days of crime on me personally I find myself shaken and I guess my posts reflect that. Thanks for your post, itís a solid check on my psyche.

    Will do better.

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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Zapiture View Post
    After two really bad days of crime on me personally I find myself shaken and I guess my posts reflect that. Thanks for your post, itís a solid check on my psyche.

    Will do better.
    You make it sound as if I gave you a talking-to! It's just so heartbreaking when we have to avoid such incredibly beautiful places, but fortunately there are many other hidden gems for us to enjoy in (relative) safety.
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by MarcR View Post
    I never trust anything where I can't see the RAW data... I only have the basic data for this graph only in an image that needs to be captured to evaluate further. But even just looking at the graph here... there are other factors that have not been identified at work.

    Paper here... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10....25802417748098 but I have no faith in the conclusion, even if the other facts are correct.
    So I put the table into excel:

    Base Data For the period 1993 to 2015:

    Total Stab: 776, Ave: 33.7, StdDev: 6.65, Min: 24, Max: 1.54, Z Min: -1.46, Z Max: 1.54
    Total Shot: 694, Ave: 30.1, StdDev: 14.19, Min: 13, Max: 54, Z Min: -1.21, Z Max: 1.68
    Total Ass: 480, Ave: 20.87, StdDev: 3.38, Min: 16, Max: 27, Z Min: -1.44, Z Max: 1.81
    Total Murd: 1950

    Correlations:

    Stab to Gun: -0.79856
    Stab to Ass: 0.14831
    Gun to Ass: -0.11437
    (See Attached Image for other Correlation Values)

    Ranked by Highest Year: (Based on the number of occurrences, highest to lowest)

    Top 10 Peak Years for Total Murders: 1998, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2002, 1995

    Top 10 Peak Years for Stabbings: 2015, 1993, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2010, 2007, 2014, 2008, 2006
    Top 10 Peak Years for Gun: 2001, 1999, 1997, 2000, 1998, 2002, 2003, 1996, 1994, 2004
    Top 10 Peak Years for Ass: 1995, 1993, 1996, 2015, 1999, 2011, 1998, 2010, 2012, 2013

    Top 10 Peak Years for Non-Gun: 2015, 1993, 2011, 2012, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2007, 1998, 2008.

    FrequenciesTop 10 types of Murder frequency by year)(S=Stab, G= Gun, A= Assault)(Cynical: Preferred method)

    1993: 1,0,1 (1x S, 0x G, 1x A)
    1994: 0,1,0
    1995: 0,0,1
    1996: 0,1,1
    1997: 0,1,0
    1998: 0,1,1
    1999: 0,1,1
    2000: 0,1,0
    2001: 0,1,0
    2002: 0,1,0
    2003: 0,1,0
    2004: 0,1,0
    2005: 0,0,0
    2006: 1,0,0
    2007: 1,0,0
    2008: 1,0,0
    2009: 0,0,0
    2010: 1,0,1
    2011: 1,0,1
    2012: 1,0,1
    2013: 1,0,1
    2014: 1,0,0
    2015: 1,0,1

    The years 1996 to 2004 appear to be where guns were the preferred murder weapon. The later trend towards stabbing and assault might be an indication that the guns have moved to more lucrative areas, either with their operators or have been sold into other areas.

    On the assumption that poverty is on the increase, the downward trend in murders overall, contradicts this as a possible correlation for the cause of murders.

    I graphed various trends, the Total is attached below. This appears to be an overall downward trend.

    Also attached is a graph illustrating total gun and non gun murders. The years 1995 to 2002 seem to have been particularly murderous years. Why would this be?
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    Last edited by Estee; 2019/09/27 at 09:47 AM.
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  15. #88
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    It looks like the idiots cant drive either
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    Estee = S T = Sean Towlson

    There is no such thing as inclement weather, only poor selection of clothing.... or Vehicle

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    Default Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Jens78 View Post
    You make it sound as if I gave you a talking-to! It's just so heartbreaking when we have to avoid such incredibly beautiful places, but fortunately there are many other hidden gems for us to enjoy in (relative) safety.
    You did....and thanks, it helped.
    Last edited by Zapiture; 2019/09/27 at 10:52 AM.

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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Love how every stooge becomes the automatic goto guy for facts when philosophy of crime is discussed.
    You think the locals directly affected are not aware of these options?

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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Rustie View Post
    Love how every stooge becomes the automatic goto guy for facts when philosophy of crime is discussed.
    You think the locals directly affected are not aware of these options?
    What options? If you mean alternative holiday destinations, what's your point?
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Estee View Post
    So I put the table into excel:

    Base Data For the period 1993 to 2015:

    Total Stab: 776, Ave: 33.7, StdDev: 6.65, Min: 24, Max: 1.54, Z Min: -1.46, Z Max: 1.54
    Total Shot: 694, Ave: 30.1, StdDev: 14.19, Min: 13, Max: 54, Z Min: -1.21, Z Max: 1.68
    Total Ass: 480, Ave: 20.87, StdDev: 3.38, Min: 16, Max: 27, Z Min: -1.44, Z Max: 1.81
    Total Murd: 1950

    Correlations:

    Stab to Gun: -0.79856
    Stab to Ass: 0.14831
    Gun to Ass: -0.11437
    (See Attached Image for other Correlation Values)

    Ranked by Highest Year: (Based on the number of occurrences, highest to lowest)

    Top 10 Peak Years for Total Murders: 1998, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2002, 1995

    Top 10 Peak Years for Stabbings: 2015, 1993, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2010, 2007, 2014, 2008, 2006
    Top 10 Peak Years for Gun: 2001, 1999, 1997, 2000, 1998, 2002, 2003, 1996, 1994, 2004
    Top 10 Peak Years for Ass: 1995, 1993, 1996, 2015, 1999, 2011, 1998, 2010, 2012, 2013

    Top 10 Peak Years for Non-Gun: 2015, 1993, 2011, 2012, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2007, 1998, 2008.

    FrequenciesTop 10 types of Murder frequency by year)(S=Stab, G= Gun, A= Assault)(Cynical: Preferred method)

    1993: 1,0,1 (1x S, 0x G, 1x A)
    1994: 0,1,0
    1995: 0,0,1
    1996: 0,1,1
    1997: 0,1,0
    1998: 0,1,1
    1999: 0,1,1
    2000: 0,1,0
    2001: 0,1,0
    2002: 0,1,0
    2003: 0,1,0
    2004: 0,1,0
    2005: 0,0,0
    2006: 1,0,0
    2007: 1,0,0
    2008: 1,0,0
    2009: 0,0,0
    2010: 1,0,1
    2011: 1,0,1
    2012: 1,0,1
    2013: 1,0,1
    2014: 1,0,0
    2015: 1,0,1

    The years 1996 to 2004 appear to be where guns were the preferred murder weapon. The later trend towards stabbing and assault might be an indication that the guns have moved to more lucrative areas, either with their operators or have been sold into other areas.

    On the assumption that poverty is on the increase, the downward trend in murders overall, contradicts this as a possible correlation for the cause of murders.

    I graphed various trends, the Total is attached below. This appears to be an overall downward trend.

    Also attached is a graph illustrating total gun and non gun murders. The years 1995 to 2002 seem to have been particularly murderous years. Why would this be?
    Me thinks the data was just more accurate 95 to 02, then downwards from there...
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Gungets Tuft View Post
    I know the family, friends with Matt and Kariís folks since 1970ís. Have heard the voice notes from family and friends after Matt was moved from ICU. It was an attack, donít listen to the sh#t the locals are trying to punt. The locals know who did it, there should be a complete tourist boycott, with the associated loss of jobs and income until the perps are turned in. Simple.
    I will support this boycott.
    As much as I really love the Wild Coast and Dwesa Reserve (near to the crime site) and as much as they DO need support - maybe the best result is for the locals to lose their jobs.
    They are protecting the criminals.
    Maybe it will bring them back to ground - realizing that the tourists actually provide support in their aria.

    VERY STRANGE though that nothing was stolen. So my BIG question... what motive?
    Just saying - I do NOT have the facts to hand.

    Erica and I have never had a bad experience (not even petty theft) along that coastline - camping all the way, not even in any kind of chalet or self catering accommodation.
    We found the people there to be friendly and approachable - no feelings of insecurity at all.

    Eish! Maybe we are just naive.
    Answering the call of the wild is just so much beter than answering the telephone.
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Jens78 View Post
    ... you can only keep your side clear and be vigilant in the protection of your loved ones, your property and yourself. Avoiding these dodgy places is a good example.
    That is what disturbs me the most...

    I am one who takes the direct route... even in the city... through whatever places the road takes me... I do not recommend this for others, but it is what I have always done...

    Now there are places and routes I won't do, and I wonder if it is just me getting older and wiser, or if the situation around me really is that bad...

    It is painful for me to agree with you, but you are right.
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1949 View Post
    ........

    Erica and I have never had a bad experience (not even petty theft) along that coastline - camping all the way, not even in any kind of chalet or self catering accommodation.
    We found the people there to be friendly and approachable - no feelings of insecurity at all.

    Eish! Maybe we are just naive.
    Agreed. Thatís how the thread started. I had a fantastic time there and absolutely loved every minute.

    But Iím afraid, there is just to much of a bad vibe in the area generally from what we pick up.

    So for me, unless there is a well publicized and tangible intervention, we will steer clear. Thatís a promise our family made to one another:

    No gung ho stuff. We always research well, always make sure there was no incidents recently, talk to the people on the ground when making bookings and finally scrub the forum ( thank God for the forum), ask, put forward a plan and ask for comments.

    We do it every year with our year end planning. If things go South, I must be able to look my family in the face and be sure we did all we could to prevent an incident.

    In a nutshell my wife ALWAYS feels safer during our escapades than at home.

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  25. #96
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter1949 View Post
    VERY STRANGE though that nothing was stolen. So my BIG question... what motive?
    Just saying - I do NOT have the facts to hand.
    IMO that is purely because the victims didn't die quickly and quietly enough, surely that was the objective.

    Then they could have ransacked the cabin in peace and quiet.
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Gungets Tuft View Post
    there should be a complete tourist boycott, with the associated loss of jobs and income.
    I agree with this, however, there is always the chance that the gov will continue paying wages anyway, to avoid retrenchments etc. I have had, when dealing with staff in some of these places, the impression that they would prefer it if there werent any customers anyways as customers are a nuisance and interfere with the socialising at work.

    Anyhoo, I shant spend my money there
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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Africa has always been a cruel continent yet it never fails to shock and astound me when cruelty and brutality like this rears it's ugly head (might be PTSD, I dunno!).

    We spent a week or so travelling up from Kei to Mbotyi in July and our experiences with the locals where, at the very least, insignificant. Had a long chat with a chap while fishing at White Clay. He was friendly and helpful. Bought some fresh fish of another guy, who gave me R20 discount. Got stuck in Umtata traffic without incident. Lost a wheel other side of Trennery's and was not accosted or attacked. So all and all a pleasant experience.

    Such a pity that a few rotten apples are going to spoil the harvest for the rest.


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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    We are booked to stay there from 5 to 14 December. We had already booked an paid in full as required on 18 January this year. In the past any crime would be resolved very quickly through the intervention of the local chiefs. At this stage it is strange that there does not seem to be any progress on the matter. This, coupled with all the other incidents leads me to the conclusion that the locals are involved and are being protected. This is a risk I am not prepared to take and cannot expose my wife and two little boys to this.

    I sent them a mail asking what they are going to do to secure the resort and if they are prepared to guarantee our safety. Their response was that it is a terrible thing that happened there and that they want our bank account details for a refund. So it seems as if we will at least get our money back.

    This is not my main problem. My 6 year old was in tears when I told him we decided not to go. He has only been to the sea once when he was two due to circumstances. Where do I now start looking for accommodation at the sea over that period without paying an arm and a leg.

    Does anyone have any suggestions?

    Thanks
    Last edited by Mars67; 2019/09/30 at 08:32 AM.

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    Default Re: Hluleka Nature Reserve attacked

    Quote Originally Posted by Mars67 View Post
    We are booked to stay there from 5 to 14 December. We had already booked an paid in full as required on 18 January this year. In the past any crime would be resolved very quickly through the intervention of the local chiefs. At this stage it is strange that there does not seem to be any progress on the matter. This, coupled with all the other incidents leads me to the conclusion that the locals are involved and are being protected. This is a risk I am not prepared to take and cannot expose my wife and two little boys to this.

    I sent them a mail asking what they are going to do to secure the resort and if they are prepared to guarantee our safety. Their response was that it is a terrible thing that happened there and that they want our bank account details for a refund. So it seems as if we will at least get our money back.

    This is not my main problem. My 6 year old was in tears when I told him we decided not to go. He has only been to the sea once when he was two due to circumstances. Where do I now start looking for accommodation at the sea over that period without paying an arm and a leg.

    Does anyone have any suggestions?

    Thanks
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