Oil price after attack?





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  1. #1
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    Default Oil price after attack?

    This is gonna hurt our pockets in the near future.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49705197

    Saudi Arabia's energy minister said the strikes had reduced crude oil production by 5.7 million barrels a day - about half the kingdom's output.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Thatís a little scary actually.
    Glad I can run on biodiesel if need be now!
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    This they can sort out quickly/relatively quickly. Big trouble comes if they can prove Iranian direct involvement.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    There seems to be a determination to start a full out war!

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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Betta View Post
    There seems to be a determination to start a full out war!
    Iran has a political system where the elected politicians have basically no power. Security apparatus and large part of industry and many other systems are under direct control of the religious leader. Some of those units are more or less out of control. One senior British politician recently wrote how he had to have special police escort - to protect against an other police organization.

    Saudi is not much better. Maybe the bigger difference is that the army is controlled by the royal family. Crown Prince like to be the "Strong Man".

    Proxy war has been going on for years. I doubt that Saudi has been many years NOT being at war. 60s it was against Egypt and now against Iran.

    Population in both countries is young and live different life than average person assumes. Iran for instance is the third largest alcohol using country in the Muslim world. Lebanon and Turkey are ahead.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Betta View Post
    There seems to be a determination to start a full out war!
    US elections just around the corner, and a wartime president has never lost an election. Timing is just about perfect. Perhaps some weapons of mass destruction to be found as well?
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gungets Tuft View Post
    US elections just around the corner, and a wartime president has never lost an election. Timing is just about perfect. Perhaps some weapons of mass destruction to be found as well?
    Trump doesn't want a war. He wants to bring army back home as promised. Fired war mongering national security adviser. The issue is two regional rivals fighting and include into the mix over 1000 year old tensions.

    What is the easiest way for a suppressive dictator or regime to stay in power?
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko View Post
    Trump doesn't want a war. He wants to bring army back home as promised. Fired war mongering national security adviser. The issue is two regional rivals fighting and include into the mix over 1000 year old tensions.

    What is the easiest way for a suppressive dictator or regime to stay in power?
    Time will tell. The issue is US history of intervening in that 1000 year old tension, at extremely convenient times.

    That war mongering security advisor - do you mean number 1, 2 or 3 - I’m losing count ...
    Last edited by Gungets Tuft; 2019/09/15 at 05:42 PM.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Seems like Saudi is losing its war against the Yemen Houthis. Yes some in the US and Saudi Arabia want to link Iran to the Houthis.
    Just another history lesson. When you start a war finish it. The world turned a blind eye to the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. They merrily sit back and watched how Saudi`s bomb Yemen to bits killing thousands of civilians. US sanctions made it even worse.

    Payback time for the Houthis. They turned the table against Saudi Arabia.

    Seems the US Patriot system does not provide the same level of security than the Russian S400`s
    Last edited by grips; 2019/09/15 at 05:56 PM.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gungets Tuft View Post
    Time will tell. The issue is US history of intervening in that 1000 year old tension, at extremely convenient times.

    That war mongering security advisor - do you mean number 1, 2 or 3 - Iím losing count ...
    Do you think this is a collective action in order to Increase oil prices, everyone wins except consumers. I cannot see the US trying to benefit from this considering theyíre the biggest oil producers in the world. And wait till renewables surpass oil, then dirty tricks will come by the dozen going as far as putting the planet at risk. Money does that to people. Who knows.

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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Betta View Post
    ...
    And wait till renewables surpass oil...
    Don't hold your breath on that one... (unless you are including nuclear).
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gungets Tuft View Post
    US elections just around the corner, and a wartime president has never lost an election. Timing is just about perfect. Perhaps some weapons of mass destruction to be found as well?
    I agree. Also if you look at the Middle East after Iraq, Libya and Syria the war against Iran is over due. Like the WOMD hoax they will find a reason for war against Iran.
    Last edited by grips; 2019/09/15 at 06:05 PM.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by grips View Post
    Seems like Saudi is losing its war against the Yemen Houthis. Yes some in the US and Saudi Arabia want to link Iran to the Houthis.
    Just another history lesson. When you start a war finish it. The world turned a blind eye to the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. They merrily sit back and watched how Saudi`s bomb Yemen to bits killing thousands of civilians. US sanctions made it even worse.

    Payback time for the Houthis. They turned the table against Saudi Arabia.

    Seems the US Patriot system does not provide the same level of security than the Russian S400`s
    Until recently I have been flying for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service between Djibouti and Sana'a & Aden in Yemen.

    The Saudi coalition mainly consists of forces of the Saudi and UAE military, plus several others, but some of them have pulled out a while ago or their contribution of personnel isn't that much.
    The Saudis have been operating in the central and northern part of Yemen, while the UAE have been operating in the south, until recently.
    For some reason, the UAE seemed to have been a lot more efficient in stabilizing the south by military action as well as by bringing together militia groups and ousting the Houthis. However, the Saudis have not been very successful in achieving anything alike in the northern part. Sana'a has been and still is, under firm control of the Houthis, so is the very important harbor town of Hudaydah.

    Recently, for various reasons, the UAE decided to drastically reduce their involvement in Yemen and immediately the south fell apart. The militia groups started fighting among each other, the separatists fight for an independent South Yemen and the soon the Houthis will probably walk into Aden.

    I got the impression that the UAE forces in the south where reasonably accepted by the Yemenis, while the Saudis haven't managed to get the acceptance or backing of the Yemeni people in Sana'a, even from those strongly opposing the Houthis. There have been way too many civilian casualties from Saudi attacks.

    The inefficiency of the Saudi military and the fact that they have alienated the Yemeni people plus the loss of important allies makes it rather unlikely that the war in Yemen will come to an end anytime soon.

    Rumor has it that tremendous amounts of oil are underneath Yemeni territory which is the true driving force for the Saudis fighting the Houthis and trying to reinstate the Hadi government.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko View Post
    Trump doesn't want a war. He wants to bring army back home as promised. Fired war mongering national security adviser. The issue is two regional rivals fighting and include into the mix over 1000 year old tensions.

    What is the easiest way for a suppressive dictator or regime to stay in power?
    He may not want a war, but it is true that wartime is an almost guaranteed re-election, so.....
    Also, he never fired Bolton because he is a warmongerer, he fired him because Bolton wouldn't sing off the official hymn sheet.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the drone wasn't a Saudi drone, personally......
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto Betta View Post
    Do you think this is a collective action in order to Increase oil prices, everyone wins except consumers. I cannot see the US trying to benefit from this considering theyíre the biggest oil producers in the world. And wait till renewables surpass oil, then dirty tricks will come by the dozen going as far as putting the planet at risk. Money does that to people. Who knows.
    Iím going to sound like my least favourite type of person - conspiracy theorist, but donít think itís that complicated. The linking of Iran to the drone attacks despite a known entity claiming responsibility is very convenient. Trump may have fired the so called war monger but heís fired so many of his security team since his term started I donít think thereís anything rational with Bolton being fired, just another brain fart from Cadet Bone Spurs.

    The USA is a nett exporter of oil, Iím not sure whether the world oil supply or price is that important any more. Iím not clued up on ME politics to be honest, but now that the USA doesnít strategically rely on ME oil any more, hence the lack of interest in Afghanistan. Thereís support for Israel - not sure that would lead the USA to war with Iran. Very open to being educated by some of the knowledgeable members here.

    My view - Trump, just like Bush, would benefit from a war with Iran, but ... {shrug} - like I said, conspiracy theory stuff ..
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Personally I just want the price of oil to climb

    We been barley getting by since oil is $60 a barrel or there about.

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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    The oil price has never been the problem. It is all the taxes that kill us.

    If we got the oil for free, we will probably pay about R12/l
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Quote Originally Posted by HugoNotte View Post
    Until recently I have been flying for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service between Djibouti and Sana'a & Aden in Yemen.

    The Saudi coalition mainly consists of forces of the Saudi and UAE military, plus several others, but some of them have pulled out a while ago or their contribution of personnel isn't that much.
    The Saudis have been operating in the central and northern part of Yemen, while the UAE have been operating in the south, until recently.
    For some reason, the UAE seemed to have been a lot more efficient in stabilizing the south by military action as well as by bringing together militia groups and ousting the Houthis. However, the Saudis have not been very successful in achieving anything alike in the northern part. Sana'a has been and still is, under firm control of the Houthis, so is the very important harbor town of Hudaydah.

    Recently, for various reasons, the UAE decided to drastically reduce their involvement in Yemen and immediately the south fell apart. The militia groups started fighting among each other, the separatists fight for an independent South Yemen and the soon the Houthis will probably walk into Aden.

    I got the impression that the UAE forces in the south where reasonably accepted by the Yemenis, while the Saudis haven't managed to get the acceptance or backing of the Yemeni people in Sana'a, even from those strongly opposing the Houthis. There have been way too many civilian casualties from Saudi attacks.

    The inefficiency of the Saudi military and the fact that they have alienated the Yemeni people plus the loss of important allies makes it rather unlikely that the war in Yemen will come to an end anytime soon.

    Rumor has it that tremendous amounts of oil are underneath Yemeni territory which is the true driving force for the Saudis fighting the Houthis and trying to reinstate the Hadi government.
    Thanks Hugo this is for better understanding.
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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    The war between Saudi and Yemen is similar to the SWA/Angola border war - in a sense. If the Russians were not supplying the hardware then the Cubans, MPLA, Swapo and ANC would not have survived - they were all too stupid to build the military hardware required to succeed.

    Now the same with the Yemenis (Houthi) - if Iran was not supplying the military hardware then there would be no war because the locals are too stupid to build and operate the hardware. A quote from a Saudi Air Force General - “the Yemeni are so stupid they could not fly the many jets and helicopters donated to them by the Saudis some years ago - they managed to crash and destroy all the aircraft and helicopters within 2 years of receiving them”

    Drones are being deployed in the Gulf region by two countries only - you can guess who they are. So why would US defeat their own objectives and attack a Saudi installation when they are suppose to be defending it.
    Last edited by Wild Life; 2019/09/15 at 10:37 PM.

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    Default Re: Oil price after attack?

    Way I see it Trumps policy on which he was voted into power and what is going on in the middle east WERE two completely different things.

    But he was drawn into an USA international diplomacy and otherwise USA militaristic big brother space he never wanted to be in.

    He was trying to withdraw the USA from playing the world big philanthropist/big brother roll. Something previous US govts both Democrats and Republicans were still revelling in and playing to even though 9/11 came along.

    Trumps take was that all the good and all the generosity and all the sacrifice of the USA post WW2 has ultimately been taken advantage of including by Western Europe, Canada, Mexico etc etc. And he is right. He and sufficient of the US electorate simply turned around and said enough is enough. It shocked the hell out of the democrats and plenty republicans as well - because they really wanted, if nit desoerately needed, their big brother roll in the world to continue, its what they knew, were comfortable with and it made them feel good and all powerful and that us what big business and profit was based on - never mind the cost to the american public.

    But then rocket man gets it right to fire a missile over Japan, Iranian fanatical religious leadership continues to be hell bent on taking over the whole Islamic world and China starts taking over islands in the China sea and is seemingly going on the good old communist "lets take over the world" bent again (despite the lessons China should have learned from the Korean war, Vietnam war, embarrassment of what went on afterwards in Laos and Cambodia, the Angolan/SWA war, the USSR Afganistan war embarrassment and finally the mother of all lulus - the collapse of the USSR).

    Trump has been pressurised and forced by all this into the US adopting its big brother roll again and by the forces in the US who want to see the US big brother roll continue most particularly the democrats - never mind that it continues to be at the serious expense and serious cost of the american people including the seemingly never ending loss of american lives.

    Its pretty clear Trump does not want to commit and involve anymore americans in world conflicts - what he and his electorate are all about includes just the opposite. In a sense he is a modern day 6Os hippie flower child. All he wants is peace, work,business and prosperity for the american people. Sad thing is those evil bastards in and outside the US needing to continue to make profit or retain power out of war seem hellbent on destroying him and his plan. They are the real enemy all should be focussing on - not Trump

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