Fracking - Revisited





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    Default Fracking - Revisited

    An interesting article...on the back of a WWF report.

    Fracking just not viable in SA – study

    "The report says the shale gas experience in the US is unique. This is borne out by the fact that shale gas exploitation in China, Australia, Mexico, Poland and some other European countries has not only proved difficult, but has also proved less economical than envisaged."

    "The report argues that, unlike South Africa, shale gas fracking developed in the US, where there was already a well-developed and mature oil and gas industry, with specialised drilling expertise and a knowledge of the geology.

    The US also had extensive pipeline and gas storage infrastructure, including in the downstream part of the chain.

    It has a well-developed market of gas users, and gas prices are deregulated, allowing easy clearance and trade in gas."

    Now looking at the Polish situation:

    http://www.theguardian.com/environme...ental-protests

    We can take a lesson on activism here. They protested for 400 days in a very organised way and Chevron eventually walked away!!

    And on top of that:

    "But things haven’t turned out that way. Plans for a shale gas-fuelled economic revival appear to be evaporating as test wells have not performed as expected or have suffered regulatory delays. Foreign investors have pulled out and sustained environmental protests like that in Zurawlow have hampered drilling plans."

    And a lesson for our government, the Polish are struggling to get all their ducks in a row so that companies are throwing in the towel after four years.

    "Instead, the prospects of a commercial industry are still very distant. Only 64 vertical test wells have been drilled, and just 11 of them have been horizontally hydraulically fractured—the process in which water and chemicals are forced at high pressure deep underground to fracture rocks and release trapped gas.
    Industry experts suggest about 200 such test wells should be drilled to see whether Poland’s geology can sustain a viable industry. By contrast, Pennsylvania, at the heart of America's shale boom, sees about 1,600 new wells drilled every year. And Poland's test wells have so far produced only 10% to 30% of the gas flow needed to be commercially sustainable. "

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/easte...olish-fracking

    Are we having a case of high expectations, low returns? Couple that with the fact that there is no definitive quantitative report on the gas in the Karoo.

    Only time will tell.

    But reading the reports on the roadshow currently going thru the Karoo...one only has wonder if frackers will have it easy? Farmers not going to help them and then not even doing their homework properly. Doing studies from behind a computer...no field work.
    Can't even say where the actual test drill holes are going to be.

    http://4x4community.co.za/forum/showthread.php?t=212560

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    Interesting stuff - here's the column I wrote for Die Burger/News24 last week which comes to similar conclusions:

    THERE are, in my experience, a few breeds of people that you mess with at your peril. Included among them would be the Kalahari boere, Namib boere, and Karoo boere – they are hardebaarde.

    US General George Patton put it well: "The Americans fight for a free world, the English mostly for honour and glory and medals... The Boers? Those sons of bitches fight for the hell of it."

    Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery, Commander of the Allled forces during World War II agreed: “Give me 20 divisions of American soldiers and I will breach Europe. Give me 15 consisting of Englishmen, and I will advance to the borders of Berlin. Give me two divisions of those marvellous fighting Boers and I will remove Germany from the face of the earth."

    These are the men and women that Falcon Oil and Gas CEO, Philip O’Quigley, from Dublin, Ireland has been facing in town hall meetings across the Karoo in the past weeks – in Sutherland, Laingsburg, Merweville, Leeu Gamka, Jansenville, Rietbron, Beaufort West, Aberdeen, and finally, Parow. Falcon is one of three companies seeking exploration rights to investigate the feasibility of hydraulic fracturing – fracking – for shale gas across a vast swathe of South Africa, much of it almost untouched semi-wilderness.

    The meeting in Aberdeen was documented in Die Burger, and also by my old friends, Julienne du Toit and Chris Marais, who run the “Karoo Space” website (www.karoospace.co.za). Julienne wrote this week that “While Falcon and its partners would ultimately want to frack as part of exploring for shale gas in the Karoo Basin, the first three years would be focused on obtaining information on underground shale layers by planting a kilogramme of dynamite in a 5-metre deep hole every 50 metres for 1000 km and measuring the underground sound waves…

    “…After four years of complete silence, Falcon had given interested and affected parties 30 days to comment on its exploration plans, with the aim of obtaining an exploration licence.”
    But O’Quigley got a hostile reception: “One of the farmers received a loud round of applause when he said: ‘You didn’t ask if it was all right to come here. You made up the rules. Who will give you permission to come on my land? I can give you the answer now. No, you may not enter! My gates are locked. And don’t come with any helicopters, because my shotgun will be loaded’.”

    Falcon is, in finance-speak, playing a long game here – they are gambling that if their tests find viable gas, they will be able to make a very big fortune by selling off their relatively small investment to one of the major players. O’Quigley said as much in Aberdeen.

    But with oil currently trading in the $55 to $58 a barrel band, will it even be financially viable to frack in South Africa, which has no infrastructure, where vast quantities of water will have to be trucked in, drilling rigs imported, and roads built? In the United States, where the industry is highly developed, drilling companies need to get between $60 and $100 a barrel just to break even.

    Some analysts are warning that the industry could default on up to $200 billion in borrowed money, which could in turn lead to a massive crash in global financial markets on a par with 2008.

    Let’s also not forget that the Mozambican, Tanzanian and other East African gas fields are estimated to hold a combined reserve of more than 650 trillion cubic feet of gas – much bigger than Russia’s confirmed reserves of 400tcf, currently the biggest single source of natural gas in the world. Let’s tap into that.

    It really makes no sense whatsoever for us to be destroying the Karoo - and don’t believe otherwise, fracking will destroy the Karoo, one of Africa, and the world’s, greatest wild spaces. Let’s treasure the Karoo for what it is, and like the boere of Aberdeen, say no to fracking.
    Last edited by Tony Weaver; 2015/02/19 at 07:15 PM.

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    Amen, Tony

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    I would have loved to have been at one of those Falcon meetings. I know some of the farmers involved. Hulle vatie ... nie!
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    Why don't we focus our energy on our offshore reserves?
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    Quote Originally Posted by OwenD View Post
    Why don't we focus our energy on our offshore reserves?
    More importantly, linking in to the East African and Mozambican reserves. Save ours for when we really need them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan Weakley View Post
    I would have loved to have been at one of those Falcon meetings. I know some of the farmers involved. Hulle vatie ... nie!
    Stan

    I would advise everyone to go read the reports of the Karoo meetings on the karoospace website. It is written with empathy and a love for the karoo and its people and a bit of humour comes through, as well.

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    I have stood in OQuigley's boots a few times. Trying to engage with farmers with honest intention and getting shotgun threats without even proper, open discussion isn't as humorous as you guys make it out to be.
    Last edited by RoelfleRoux; 2015/02/20 at 02:29 PM.

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    Farmers are getting fed up with being messed around and threatened, if it is not that cretin president telling us he will limit farm sizes etc it is these money hungry fracking companies. Alls well in town the municipality looks after your water, we look after our own water, pump it, store it, purify if need be and then dispose of it. The day we open our taps and find it is poisoned is the day we go down the tube. The municipality where the city boys live won't let that happen, so he has nothing to worry about just wants his tank full and his lights to work.
    Hopefully the oil price stays at a level that makes fracking uneconomical. I have a windfarm partially built on my property, and was told by the engineers that the water to frack one hole is the same amount that was needed to build the roads and cast 40 750 ton foundations on this windfarm. the areas mentioned above from Sutherland to Jansenville to Graff Reinet are far from large water sources. Trucking a couple of billion liters of water to a place like Sutherland, storing it and removing it again I really hope is impossible.

    As for Zuma if he wants land let him look at splitting the large properties in the cities, give those to the cadres.
    Last edited by pwgg; 2015/02/20 at 02:47 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OwenD View Post
    Why don't we focus our energy on our offshore reserves?


    Yes... much better idea.
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    It seems that the 'tardiness' of government to put legislation in place has forced Shell to re-evaluate their position vis-a-vis Karoo Fracking.

    http://www.timeslive.co.za/businesst...hale-gas-audio

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggles View Post


    Yes... much better idea.
    I think it is a much better idea. These things can be avoided by following protocol- we don't even really know what things we need to avoid with hydraulic fracturing yet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prof View Post
    It seems that the 'tardiness' of government to put legislation in place has forced Shell to re-evaluate their position vis-a-vis Karoo Fracking.

    http://www.timeslive.co.za/businesst...hale-gas-audio
    I'd say the oil price also has something to do with reducing efforts in global exploration.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OwenD View Post
    I'd say the oil price also has something to do with reducing efforts in global exploration.
    Spot on Owen. http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Oil-div...plans-20150316

    Oil dive puts paid to Shell's fracking plans
    Johannesburg - Royal Dutch Shell is pulling back from its shale projects in South Africa due to lower energy prices, its country manager said on Monday.

    "The reason to go to a low cost holding position... is as a result of a difficult period for world (prices)," Shell South Africa chairperson Bonang Mohale told Johannesburg station Talk Radio 702.
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    Default preparing to go ahead

    here is the latest from Reuters:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0XY3BX20150507


    May 7 (Reuters) - South Africa will gazette final regulations for shale gas exploration by June, two years after releasing draft rules and as companies reconsider investments due to volatile oil prices and delays in awarding licenses.

    In March, Royal Dutch Shell said it was pulling back from its shale projects in South Africa's semi-arid Karoo region which is believed to hold up to 390 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable reserves.

    "We have finalised the regulations... It would be gazetted in a month's time," Ngoako Ramatlhodi, minister of mineral resources, told reporters before his budget speech to parliament.

    Shell had applied for an exploration license covering more than 95,000 square km, almost a quarter of the Karoo.

    A study commissioned by the company said extracting 50 trillion cubic feet or 12.8 percent of potential reserves, would add $20 billion or 0.5 percent of GDP to the South African economy every year for 25 years and create 700,000 jobs.

    Besides Shell, Falcon Oil and Gas in partnership with Chevron, and Bundu Gas have applied for exploration licenses.

    But environmentalists and land owners in the Karoo, situated in the heart of South Africa, have argued that exploring for shale by fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, would cause huge environmental damage in the water-scarce region.

    "We have taken into consideration the issues of water and regulations are going to address this sufficiently, providing proper guidance on how to undertake hydraulic fracturing," said Thibedi Ramontja, director general in the department of mineral resources.

    It would take companies about three years of exploration to determine if the Karoo reserves were commercially viable, before moving into possible production, he added. (Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
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    Default fracking

    here in the US. oil and gas projects are being shut down or delayed
    due to low oil prices and there are very many wells drilled and capped.
    also due to earlier overproduction.

    I am afraid money and profit will trump our environment most often.

    in the future water will be the most valuable commodity of all.

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    Bundu Gas ?
    Sounds like something a South African might quickly put together at tender stage..
    There is no task too simple for some people to complicate !



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    Default Re: Fracking - Revisited

    Old post but still important.

    Very interesting (old) report on fracking industry in a developed country.
    ...and our people think mining is dangerous. It would be called the killing fields in SA.

    I wonder what is the current developments (fracking plan progress) in SA.


    http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/...715104927.html


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