Day zero when the Cape runs dry - Page 37




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  1. #721
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Ocin View Post
    So glad to hear i'm not the only one missing proper showers at proper water pressures.
    This 90 seconds shower thing is starting to mess with my brain.
    I'm currently in JHB for work and will certainly enjoy my full 3 minute shower!
    Niel
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  2. #722
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Thank you DA-run council, thank you farmers, thank you every single resident/visitor who has saved where possible

    It seems we have averted the immediate imminent crisis, and with lots of lessons learned through this, we are sure to see good contingencies in hand for the next season.

    All is fine in the Fairest Cape!



    4 things that helped us dramatically push back Day Zero

    https://www.news24.com/Columnists/Gu...-zero-20180312

    On 18 January 2018, Mayor Patricia de Lille, announcing the imposition of level 6B water restrictions, warned that Day Zero when Cape Town residents would start queueing for water rations was now virtually unavoidable. The "likely" date, she said, was 21 April.
    On 7 March 48 days later DA leader Mmusi Maimane announced that Cape Town was unlikely to reach Day Zero during 2018.
    What happened between those two dates to occasion such a dramatic recovery, despite the absence of rain? The answer is: Four things:
    - Water consumption dropped significantly, from over 600 million litres per day to around 520 million litres. This was driven by a combination of tight new restrictions; significant tariff increases; a deliberate drop in water pressure, and residents' compliance with water-saving measures.

    - Water supply to three agricultural irrigation boards was cut entirely.

    - The farmers of the Groenland Water Users Association donated 10 billion (10 000 million) litres of water from its Eikenhof dam to the City.

    - Augmentation began to come on stream by the targeted dates.

    None of these developments was predictable, with any accuracy, back in January, when dam levels were dropping by 1.4% per week. The rate of decline of the dam levels, and the average daily water usage, were used to calculate the "Day Zero" date when dam levels were projected to reach 13.5%, and serious water rationing of 25 litres per person per day would begin.

    Water saving, in particular, has been exceptionally successful in Cape Town, where usage has dropped by 60% from the daily high of 1.2 billion litres three years ago. This is a higher rate of saving than has been achieved by any city in comparable circumstances.

    As a result, dams are now dropping by only 0.4% per week. On the current trend, Day Zero has been pushed back to the end of August. By that time the province will be well into the rainy season. In addition, further augmentation will have come on stream.
    Even a moderate amount of rain (together with continued water savings) will enable us to reach the end of 2018 without having hit Day Zero.

    However, the risk remains: if this winter's rainfall is as low as that of 2017, and if consumption starts to creep up again, Day Zero could loom large once more during the summer of 2018/19.

    If this is so, why didn't we just retain the "Day Zero" narrative that successfully raised public awareness of the seriousness of the situation?

    First, we are committed to giving honest weekly updates. When circumstances change, we say so. Day Zero has always been a moving target because it is affected both by consumption and augmentation. This week's projection showed that Day Zero was unlikely to arrive before the end of 2018. So we passed on the news.
    This was necessary for a second reason as well: While the "Day Zero" messaging helped us achieve our water saving targets, it also had some seriously negative consequences, especially for the economy.

    The idea of "Day Zero" hovering on the horizon has had a major effect on the big pillar of our economy, tourism. Visitors stay away from a city at risk of running out of water. Many also cancel their bookings. And this has a knock-on effect through the entire pipeline of tourism offerings. We simply cannot afford to lose jobs (especially as the 30 000 job losses in agriculture, due to the drought, have been unavoidable). So it was a great relief to be able to share the good news this week.
    It is an enormously positive development that we can now truthfully tell the world that Cape Town is open for both business and leisure. Visitors are welcome, for many reasons, including that their presence saves jobs. They won't experience any discomfort as a result of the drought. A short shower achieves its hygiene objectives just as effectively as a deep bath.

    Tourism is all the more important given the challenges we are facing in other sectors too. Construction, another water-intensive industry, has slowed both because of the drought and threats of expropriation of land without compensation.
    Across the board, this week's news got us onto the "up-escalator" again. But the general rule still holds: for every escalator going up, there is one going down. Complacence about water use is our greatest risk.

    If rainfall in 2018 remains as low as it was in 2017, we will find ourselves in a similar crisis at the start of 2019, even if all our augmentation schemes come on line by their target dates. There is little that can affordably compensate for a dramatic drop in rainfall, however hard we try.

    By 2020, Cape Town should have increased its available water supply by 300 million litres a day through various augmentation methods including desalination, aquifer abstraction and re-use.

    But our population grows every year, and augmentation on its own is unlikely to be enough to provide for our previous consumption levels, even if proper rains fall. Sensible water use must become a way of life.
    At the same time, the crisis has positioned Cape Town at the forefront of water resilience, which is rapidly becoming a necessity for major cities world-wide. Given what we have achieved together with the growth of our water economy we could both avoid reaching Day Zero and set the benchmark of water resilience for the rest of the planet.
    - Helen Zille is premier of the Western Cape.
    "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."

    - Charles Bukowski

  3. #723
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Don't rejoice to soon Patric. There are still a lot of 'if's' before Day Zero is no more!

  4. #724
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Stoffel View Post
    Don't rejoice to soon Patric. There are still a lot of 'if's' before Day Zero is no more!
    If we miss "Day Zero 2018" the real question becomes how much rain is needed to avoid "Day Zero 2019"?

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  6. #725
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    I saw a figure of 3x normal rainfall to get the dams 100% full.

  7. #726
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisF View Post
    If we miss "Day Zero 2018" the real question becomes how much rain is needed to avoid "Day Zero 2019"?
    OK-I give up

    -maybe I'll drown myself in the mud at Theewaterskloof just as the last slimy barbel are dying off then-no hope left, it seems!
    "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."

    - Charles Bukowski

  8. #727
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick L View Post
    Thank you DA-run council, thank you farmers, thank you every single resident/visitor who has saved where possible

    It seems we have averted the immediate imminent crisis, and with lots of lessons learned through this, we are sure to see good contingencies in hand for the next season.

    All is fine in the Fairest Cape!



    4 things that helped us dramatically push back Day Zero



    https://www.news24.com/Columnists/Gu...-zero-20180312

    On 18 January 2018, Mayor Patricia de Lille, announcing the imposition of level 6B water restrictions, warned that Day Zero when Cape Town residents would start queueing for water rations was now virtually unavoidable. The "likely" date, she said, was 21 April.
    On 7 March 48 days later DA leader Mmusi Maimane announced that Cape Town was unlikely to reach Day Zero during 2018.
    What happened between those two dates to occasion such a dramatic recovery, despite the absence of rain?
    The answer is:
    Four things:
    - Water consumption dropped significantly, from over 600 million litres per day to around 520 million litres. This was driven by a combination of tight new restrictions; significant tariff increases; a deliberate drop in water pressure, and residents' compliance with water-saving measures.

    - Water supply to three agricultural irrigation boards was cut entirely.

    - The farmers of the Groenland Water Users Association donated 10 billion (10 000 million) litres of water from its Eikenhof dam to the City.

    - Augmentation began to come on stream by the targeted dates.
    I heard a slightly different take on that this weekend...additional to the generosity of the Groenland people and the other measures...
    Apparently De Lille was on the Committee/Team of the water crisis and was simply blocking all documentation related to the crisis and she was removed and replaced with the Deputy Mayor, Ian Neilson, who happens to be a Civil Engineer who has been in water engineering for 20 years and as if by magic, things started moving and the finances were released to actually stop talking about the crisis and do something about it instead.

    It was also mentioned that there are rumours that Patricia De Lille is the probable ANC CoCT Mayoral candidate for the next Regional Elections.....
    Cheers,
    John

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  9. #728
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnoK View Post
    I heard a slightly different take on that this weekend...additional to the generosity of the Groenland people and the other measures...
    Apparently De Lille was on the Committee/Team of the water crisis and was simply blocking all documentation related to the crisis and she was removed and replaced with the Deputy Mayor, Ian Neilson, who happens to be a Civil Engineer who has been in water engineering for 20 years and as if by magic, things started moving and the finances were released to actually stop talking about the crisis and do something about it instead.

    It was also mentioned that there are rumours that Patricia De Lille is the probable ANC CoCT Mayoral candidate for the next Regional Elections.....
    -I appreciate and am open to other views and information-but what you describe does not sound plausible to me. I saw Neilson in his first interview on the water crisis......

    -I am sure GodZille sat him down after that embarassing interview, took his hand, and gave him some good publicity management guidelines-then quietly put him to work on engineering the practical solutions under her direction.

    As for De Lille- the ANC can have her for their voting mascot for all that may be worth to them- but they will not take this province or city either way
    Last edited by Patrick L; 2018/03/12 at 07:41 PM.
    "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."

    - Charles Bukowski

  10. #729
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Stoffel View Post
    Don't rejoice to soon Patric. There are still a lot of 'if's' before Day Zero is no more!
    -buts abound too........!!!.......
    "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."

    - Charles Bukowski

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  12. #730
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry


  13. #731
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick L View Post
    OK-I give up

    -maybe I'll drown myself in the mud at Theewaterskloof just as the last slimy barbel are dying off then-no hope left, it seems!
    Hehehe ....

    There were MANY role-players in avoiding a day zero scenario !


    BUT, lets look at the facts. This was mostly because of insane measures to reduce water usage. Let's not forget the number of farmers that did not plant full crops this year - we WILL still feel that when we buy food in a few months !! The number of alternate water sources brought on-line is a SMALL fraction of our normal usage.

    We need above average rainfall to fill the dams over the next couple of years .... while still being on something like Stage 3B water restrictions for the coming years.


    Dont get me wrong - GOOD for keeping the taps running. But we are NOT out of the woods yet, not by a long shot !!

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  15. #732
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisF View Post
    Hehehe ....

    There were MANY role-players in avoiding a day zero scenario !


    BUT, lets look at the facts. This was mostly because of insane measures to reduce water usage. Let's not forget the number of farmers that did not plant full crops this year - we WILL still feel that when we buy food in a few months !! The number of alternate water sources brought on-line is a SMALL fraction of our normal usage.

    We need above average rainfall to fill the dams over the next couple of years .... while still being on something like Stage 3B water restrictions for the coming years.


    Dont get me wrong - GOOD for keeping the taps running. But we are NOT out of the woods yet, not by a long shot !!
    Definitely still a hill to climb-the impact it has had so far is quite severe-and much hardship is to follow in food shortages/price rises/job losses.

    The best scenario that we hope for includes, in the star performance, a very wet winter indeed to more than fill the dams to the brim ( and fill all the new jo-jo tanks around!)-bit parts will be played by new/expanded water sources, a more educated population, and agriculture/industry that is now very much more geared to consume much less critical water than before.
    "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."

    - Charles Bukowski

  16. #733
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    This is interesting...

    400k liters/day

    https://ecoloblue.com/


  17. #734
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisF View Post
    But we are NOT out of the woods yet, not by a long shot !!
    Absolutely agree with that assessment.
    Cheers,
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  18. #735
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick L View Post
    I saw Neilson in his first interview on the water crisis......

    -I am sure GodZille sat him down after that embarassing interview, took his hand, and gave him some good publicity management guidelines-then quietly put him to work on engineering the practical solutions under her direction.
    From my point of view, in this situation, I could care less if he stutters and drools when he speaks in public, if he is a better hydro Engineer than public speaker, we win.
    Cheers,
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  19. #736
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnoK View Post
    From my point of view, in this situation, I could care less if he stutters and drools when he speaks in public, if he is a better hydro Engineer than public speaker, we win.
    It sickens me when politicians takes all the credit. They did not do anything, officials did it all.

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  21. #737
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    I'm not following you, Chris.
    He wasn't the one taking the credit for the changes in the scenario, the post I made was summary of a conversation I had at a registration station.
    If there is indeed any truth to it, it would mean that his presence HAS improved matters, and for that I for one am grateful.
    Cheers,
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  22. #738
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    No John. What I meant is that politicians are always taking all the credit and do not acknowledge the role officials played in all of this.

  23. #739
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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Stoffel View Post
    No John. What I meant is that politicians are always taking all the credit and do not acknowledge the role officials played in all of this.
    .. but then the officials are taking credit for what the engineers and workers on the ground are actually practically designing and building!

    That's all politicians and officials ever are anywhere -mouthpieces and messengers! with their own entourage of advisers and tea-makers -and everything inbetween!
    "The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."

    - Charles Bukowski

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    Default Re: Day zero when the Cape runs dry

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick L View Post
    .. but then the officials are taking credit for what the engineers and workers on the ground are actually practically designing and building!

    That's all politicians and officials ever are anywhere -mouthpieces and messengers! with their own entourage of advisers and tea-makers -and everything inbetween!

    No No No. By officials I mean those people that work for the City of Cape Town. Everyone of them. The employees and those guys.

    Gorrit?

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